Kenya could be heading into a much wetter-than-usual October to December season, with authorities warning communities to prepare early for possible flooding and other emergencies.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority says above-average to enhanced rainfall is expected across most of the country, driven by a very strong El Niño and an expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

What Are the Main Risks?

The heavy rains could bring widespread flooding and flash floods, particularly in low lying areas and towns with poor drainage.

Other risks include landslides and mudslides, damaged roads and bridges, power disruptions, disease outbreaks and interruptions to schools and health facilities.

Communities in the lower Tana basin, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and parts of the Lake Victoria basin are among those facing a higher risk of displacement.

Why This Warning Matters

During the 2023/24 El Niño, more than 500,000 people were displaced across 43 counties. The severity index for the coming season is projected to be even higher.

That makes the weeks before the rains especially important.

The Kenya Red Cross says it is working with government and partners to ensure weather warnings lead to early action.

For communities in vulnerable areas, preparing evacuation routes, clearing drainage systems and following official weather updates could make a major difference once the rains begin.